Monday, 18 April 2016

Darling Wife

DARLING WIFE - WHY WE MUST VOTE TO STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

There is much talk about the upcoming EU Referendum - in fact, its the ONLY thing we are really hearing on the news at the moment along with November's US Presidential election. 

Our vote on this really matters - particularly for the young as its our generation who will be affected by whatever the outcome is later on. It has cost £9 million for the government to produce a leaflet and distribute it to every household in the UK explaining the importance of voting to stay in. Mine came yesterday. 


Before this arrived, a family friend wrote the following open letter to his wife setting out his views and thoughts - personally I think its much better than the leaflet ! 

With his permission, I am sharing it here for your interest - do pass it on:

Darling Wife,

You said you felt you wanted some facts about this whole European business in order to make up your mind which way to vote in the Referendum. And to hear the positive arguments about why to stay in Europe.

I understand your difficulty as for the last twenty years the British media coverage & UK political headlines on Europe have been of the “I read it in the tabloids so it must be true” variety with sound bites about ever more ridiculous regulation, about outrageous rulings from the Court of Human Rights, about expense scandals by MEP’s & about attempts by perfidious continentals to force mass immigration on Britain. Rarely do we hear talk of the very real positives of our membership of the European club.

So let me proffer you first some global context, secondly some positive arguments on why we must stay in & finally some observations on the weaknesses in the Brexit case.

A.    Global context
a.      We are a small country of 65 m people. 1% of the world population of over 7 billion. The Eu has a population of over 500m. The choice is to standalone as a small entrepot –at best like a Singapore - or continue as part of a bloc that is more populous than the USA & with a collective economy as big as the biggest economy in the world- the USA.
b.     45% of our export trade is with Europe. They are our biggest customer by far (whereas we are but 10% of the export of the rest of the Eu). So we have a lot, lot more to lose from Brexit than they do & our leverage with them is proportionately weak.
c.      From the perspective of those outside Europe, the UK represents a English speaking base giving access to a 500m people market & a nation that is a positive free trade influence on the Eu. In fact more than a half of all non Eu companies have their European HQ in the UK. Would they still choose to be based here & use us as a springboard if we were out of the Single Market? And we are singularly dependant on inward investment. Some £400bn has come our way in the last ten years. Would it continue?
d.     For those reasons & more, the leaders of the USA, China & India have all overtly encouraged us to stay in the Eu. Both as a springboard , as a free trader influence on the Eu & as a key player in Western security. For instance U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says Washington has a "profound interest" in Britain remaining a member of the Eu.
e.      History has bestowed us seats on the G8 & the G20. How long will economics & politics allow such a small nation to have a seat on the top table & how long before the Eu –which already has a seat on these tables- is seen as an adequate & proportionate representation for Europe at large? In time we will be kicked off the global top table. At least through the Eu –if we stay- we will forever retain an influence.

B.    Positive reasons to stay in the Eu
a.      First it must be understood that we were not founding fathers & the Eu was shaped by continental countries who have different historical perspectives to ours & who come from different legal, political & cultural traditions. That & the nature of compromise required to run any enterprise of over 25 different entities, means there will inevitably be aspects of the venture we don’t care for & at times downright dislike.
b.     But that should not deflect us from the fact that our geopolitical goal for centuries has been to engage in Europe & to keep peace & prosperity in Europe. Our forefathers fought two wars in the last century to achieve it- not just to defend our narrow island security. And peace, the fundamental unwritten goal of the EEC/EU has been achieved for 70 years. We should be chary of the risks of returning to 19thc Nation State politicking.
c.      The Eu has given us tariff/trade bloc free access to a 500m market on our doorstep. The Single Market is the biggest tariff free zone in the world.
d.     It is often forgotten that the Eu ‘red tape’ has included positive new legislation & regulation that has made us a safer, fairer & more civilized place than we were forty years ago.
e.      It has helped make us culturally more outward – think ‘Twinned with’, the explosion in travel to Europe & the vast improvement in British food since the 1960’s.
f.       And remember the support the environment & rural enterprise has had from Europe. Brussels has been much more consistent & long sighted on these matters than Whitehall. Remember what our beaches used to be like!
g.      Immigration from the Eu has been a huge positive for our economy & is one of the major drivers of our current relative economic success. You see the Poles in our fields & in our restaurants- not in the Benefits Offices. The Eu & freedom of movement has given us access to huge numbers of enterprising, ambitious & well educated young people. When did Britain –once the byword for tolerance & quiet welcome for immigrants- become so un self assured & intolerant? Clearly uncontrolled open doors to every waif & stray south & east of the Mediterranean would be madness but nor should we allow the dark voices of xenophobia to roam the streets of Britain.
h.     Much is written of ‘what we pay into Brussels’ : less about what we get back in subsidies for the more deprived areas of the UK
i.        Staying in the Eu we stand a good chance of calming the Scottish cries for independence. If the English were by a big majority to vote to leave -despite a majority vote from Scotland to stay in -Brexit would surely precipitate the break up of the Union.
j.        Of course the Eu is far from perfect & it is currently much shaken by the (foolish) Eurozone project & by the immigration “crisis” following Merkel’s (equally foolish) “willkommen” policy. Whether Eu would survive a British exit is a profound worry. Certainly Brexit would leave Europe a less stable & less safe neighbour- an own goal of monumental stupidity.
k.     This is not a battle between Europhiles & Eurosceptics : it is more like between Europragmatics who wish to Stay & Europhobes who wish to Leave.


C.     The weakness in the Brexit case
a.      The Brexiters argue that a Leave vote would be followed by a negotiation between Britain & the Eu which would allow us to retain free trade access to Europe without belonging to the political aspect of the Union nor being bound by Eu regulation. There are fundamental flaws in this hypothesis:

i.      Why should the other 27 Eu countries –terrified of isolationist parties in their own back yard- wish to be seen to reward the UK for walking out the exit door?

 ii.      The ‘economic access but not membership of the Eu’ is precisely the situation Norway & Iceland are in today. To secure economic access these countries have had to agree by much of the Eu regulation -93 statutes of it to be precise- & pay £300m into the Eu coffers to be granted that access. And they have had to accept free movement of Eu migrants - the very control the Brexiters wish to have! Why should it be different for the UK? So the only real difference would be losing our seat at the table in the Eu & our capability to influence the decisions that impact us

 iii.      What chance of improving the Eu & making it the forward looking economic powerhouse on our doorstep that we all want, if we stand outside it?

 iv.      The very weaknesses the Brexiters see in the Eu are those that it would make it extremely difficult for all 27 to come together to find the practical political will to offer an ‘out Britain’ the deal the Brexiters want- whether as a ‘re-entrant with swathes of Eu exemptions ‘or as an ‘Out country with economic access’ to the Eu market

v.      And were we to fail to negotiate tariff free access to Europe, we would be back to protectionism with prices of food & other goods rising –in some areas dramatically

vi.      To withdraw from the Eu we would have to exercise Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which specifies that it is the (by then bitterly offended) Eu that would settle the terms of any new deal with the withdrawing party - & Article 50 is explicit that the withdrawing party (in this case Britain!) is not part of the discussions on those terms.

vii.      God help us if we have to spend the next five years renegotiating our institutional, financial & economic relationships with the Eu. Think of Turkey knocking fruitlessly on the door for over twenty years. And remember de Gaulle’s “Non”.

b.     These Brexit MP’s make much of “national sovereignty” ignoring the fact that all forms of international collaboration by definition cede some absolute sovereignty- whether as members of NATO, of the IMF, of the UN, of the WHO etc etc. These MP’s interest in sovereignty has much to do with their own power- & since I am suspicious of political agendas of change, I am delighted if their power is compromised & hedged in! (PS. And if you want expense scandals look no further than Westminster!)
c.      The City is our major global asset. Would an Eu without Britain not take steps to build a rival on the Continent-? in Frankfurt. Indeed would any post Brexit free trade deal with the Eu include services?
d.     The Eu has 33 trade deals with other countries around the world. Try negotiating that lot as ‘Newly Isolated UK Inc’! And it would remove us from the US/Eu trade negotiation currently in hand.
e.      The Brexiters imagine a world free of red tape & bristling with enterprise. They clearly have short memories & don’t recall the stifling bureaucracy of Britain pre-Europe. Our Civil Service have entrenched habits & our politicians an enduring taste for meddling. In fact I am reliably informed that a disproportionate % of Eu legislation has its origins in proposals from Britain.
f.       It is hard to believe that at a time of heightened security risk from ISIL & from Putin that we would be safer ‘going it alone’

In short I see Brexit as lunacy. A huge gamble & the road to global irrelevance for Britain, which would lead quite probably to the break up of the Union & grave troubles on the Continent.

The European Union may one day fall apart but it is not in our geopolitical interest to be the catalyst for it. We are better together & would be considerably the poorer apart.

The weakening of the pound in recent weeks gives the world’s markets’ view on the balance of the argument but is I fear just the beginning if we were to sleepwalk out of Europe. This is a historic moment & we should not play poker with our future.

So Darling Wife please vote to Stay In!

To try and be fair - I am going to try and find a comprehensive "reasons to leave" article and post it here too.

Please share the above with anyone who is interested.....

2 comments:

  1. Dear Miranda,
    As Tiger's notes to me have been shared to heavens knows who, I think the darling wife should share her patiences with yourself, Tiger and all.

    Yours,
    Bunny Rabbit



    Dear Tiger,
    When you asked me to read your latest notes, I did promise to read them over the last bank holiday, down at the caravan. Which I did, carefully, when you were down at the putting green. But, I really did think that as I have had to listen to all your Brussels stuff so many times, why was this necessary? Don’t you think all this has become an obsession with you? Though I do try to sympathise with you,I have to admit that I find your latest interest more tolerable than your past passion for the f. club, especially when I agreed to go to a match and you all began the deafening shouting of fowl abuse to God knows who, it was a horrible shock.
    I have often said to you that after the f.club closed that dismantling the Morris on Saturday’s and me getting Betty to put it back together on Sunday’s was a relief from the f.club and I have really tried to take some interest in Morris’s engine, just for your sake and of course, poor Morris.
    However, with your present mission, I did suggest that you change from The Sun to the now defunct Independent as the f.club and although The Sun sports pages did once mention your f.club, it’s hardly any use to your temper during your second early morning event. But, why not try The Guardian or The Observer that the BBC so often quotes?
    After all, how can any of us accept that you are not so well informed, as we all have to be quiet as you tune in to the BBC News at 6 and take down all your notes in your old exercise books.
    You were so angry when I made some silly remarks about Mr Cameron’s short trousered, dib, dib, dobbing in his “Cobra” bunker and Osborne’s apocalyptic Armageddon rants and Boris’s blondie Charrabang, battle bus and his dire warnings of enslavement to the Junkers 4th Reich is all pointless rubbish, which you can continue with if you must.
    But, at the caravan I thought your notes were just for me, but was soon disabused when I heard you had broadcast your revelation to all we know, or knew. My horror and embarrassment is all too dreadful, but as before, I hope to get over it and that after judgement day, life will go on.
    You may say this is again one of my silly niggles, but I have always remarked of your “to do lists” with Morris and the caravan outings, but here I go again.
    Please write in normal A4 format and not in your precious vulgate bible size. Your half size pages numbered 1-7, 3 A4’s would have been adequate and as I have told you normal notes don’t need any letters or numbering as your vulgate has.
    Of course, I know all this is not any comments you will have expected, but if you insist on broadcasting your present hobby horse to all and sundry, without letting me look over your revelations, I could have saved us both the incoming ridicule and embarrassment. Anyway, in a few weeks it will all be over, I hope.
    But all besides, chin up Tiger! All forgotten and of course I know just how much you care and your sweet notes to us all are your very own way to show all your love to us, as our minds fail to look up to yours.
    I fully realised that right now you could not care a damn, but I heard, and can only tell you now, that the butchers say that Ted is definitely putting the lads into a brand new f. team, just in time for the new season!!
    But, Ted is asking for all the old supporters for any help in the restoration. So, can I please, tell Ted, yes, you will be all hands on?
    Apparently the old piggery farm has donated muck to spread and level the old pitch, in a clever way that will even up the pitch slope and the toilets and drains need unclogging. The changing rooms are a bit rotted but nothing that some Polyfilla and a lick of paint won’t make it as good as new!
    So, Tiger, just think of past f.team hopes, today, at home, next week away. But next year at Wimbledon!!

    From your own Bunny Rabbit.



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